My best guess is that the Republicans are going to stay the course for now as they rely too much on the right-wing of christianity. Despite having some of the most outstandingly bad own-goals during the latest attempt at the presidency, they still polled in the election far higher than I would have expected.
They'd need to replace too many voters, and despite the right wing christians losing a natural home, I suspect many would rather stay at home than vote for something they fundamentally disagree with.
I do think they're going to have to look for a different approach, but then I wonder what they actually stand for if they're going to shift their views to attract voters?
Rapscallion
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The Political No Win Scenario
For those that enjoy the "strategy" side of politics and how issues are taken up and abandoned by different parties, I submit this story here about the schism within the Republican Party due to same sex marriage.
I would submit the following (regardless of how you feel about the issue.)
1. The Evangelical base is an indispensable bloc of the Republican party in terms of voter turnout.
2. The base is no longer sufficient to defeat the Democratic plurality due to shifting demographics and opinions.
3. If the Republican party does NOT drop its opposition to same sex marriage, it's ability to win national elections will continue to be marginalized. Actually, there's a fun projection from Nate Silver here.
So my question is politically practical. What is it in the Republican Party's best interest to do today? Remove any chance of winning national elections and possibly become replaced by another party that will tow the evangelical line by supporting Same Sex Marriage today? Support that status quo and stay competitive (although rely on voter suppression and turnout) in the present at the risk of long term obsolescence? Is there a way to transition to a Pro Same Sex marriage platform AND stay competitive?
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