2012

[Darrien]

With the movie and the actual date 3 years a away, I was curious everyone's opinion on the validity of any the doomsday predictions.

[BroomJockey]

My opinion is summed up quite nicely in the following:

http://www.cracked.com/article_17445_6-best-2012-apocalypse-theories-are-all-bullshit.html

[Pedersen]

So, you are asking people opinions on the calendar system of a long dead civilization's ability to predict catastrophe for the world?

I'll take "Ridiculously Impossible Scenarios for $1000", Alex.

[Greenday]

Their calender has ended multiple times as I recall. Earth is still here...

[joe hx]

i think it's like our calendar ends with December. does that mean there's nothing after December? no, it just cycles

but it is fun to think about

[Flyndaran]

I really hope no one discovers an near earth orbiting object that makes an approach in 2012. People will go insane!

[Kalli]

ugh, every time I hear a 2012 theory I just want to shove a dirty sock in the doomsayer's mouth.

The truth is, humans think in terms of beginnings and endings. Everything has a start and everything has a finish. We just aren't capable of contemplating something that never started, and will never end. This is where these ass-backwards theories come from, imo.

[Flyndaran]

...We just aren't capable of contemplating something that never started, and will never end. This is where these ass-backwards theories come from, imo.

I'm an atheist that believes in beginnings and endings. The universe began about 14 billion years ago, and will eventually die a "heat death".
Everything ends, but the problem is believing that we can predict it. We inherently love the idea of judgement times, when all the wrongs will be righted.

[AFPheonix]

Meh, I could worry about it, but there's really no planning one can do in the event of world-wide cataclysm, so you know what? I'm gonna keep on doing what I'm doing, have a good time and call it good.

[Dreamstalker]

"I believe that the world will end on February 14th in the year 2016." :p

As I heard it, when the Mayan calendar was developed 2012 just happened to be as far as their calculations could go (I also doubt they saw a pressing need to go further).

[Giggle Goose]

As I heard it, when the Mayan calendar was developed 2012 just happened to be as far as their calculations could go (I also doubt they saw a pressing need to go further).


Yeah, they might have had plans to do that, but then the Spanish came and fucked them over. Guess we'll never know! :p

[Flyndaran]

...
As I heard it, when the Mayan calendar was developed 2012 just happened to be as far as their calculations could go (I also doubt they saw a pressing need to go further).

Actually, it's just the roll over moment adding one more "world" to the count.

[Bloodsoul]

The world can't end yet! The calendar on "Super Mario Bros. DX" goes up to the year 3,000!

[Slytovhand]

I really hope no one discovers an near earth orbiting object that makes an approach in 2012. People will go insane!

I had a friend try to convince me they're already detected 3 possibilities already.. and guess when they're likely to show up and get close????

Instincts tell me something will happen from around that point onwards, but not the 'end of the world' per se... maybe just a big change (or a pile of little ones). We're heading that way anyway... it won't really be that surprising if some drastic shit hits the fan in the next few years (what with North Korea getting bullying, and Iran getting pointed at by the US.. and now Indonesians are bombing people again.....).

As for the Mayan calander, it actually continued for another 5 billion years. But, I think someone needed some stone to write something down on, and grabbed the closest hunk of rock and wrote on the back of it.. it was probably for a shopping list or someone's number... you know what it's like when you're in a hurry.

[BroomJockey]

As for the Mayan calander, it actually continued for another 5 billion years.

From my understanding, no. It was a cycle, almost like a "greater year." To explain what I mean, think of it this way: within a year, we have months. It's always the same months. The year ends, we go back to the start, with a few new calculations, especially re: Feb. The Mayan calendar was sorta like that. It gets to the end, they start over, with a few new calculations.

[Slytovhand]

Umm - that was a bad attempt at humour... as per the follow-on sentences....

But, slightly more seriously, yes, that's pretty much how I see it as well. Besides, if we presume a certain amount of 'bloody long timedness', say, another 15 billion years, does that mean they are required to have gone up that far? To me, it seems pretty fair that they be allowed to stop making their calenders go up to a certain period of time, and after that - don't bother til it becomes relevant!

After all, how long will a computer clock calculate to? Does that mean the end of the universe just because it hits that end date??? OH, sorry, I forgot the world ended 31st, Dec, 1999....

[Pedersen]

After all, how long will a computer clock calculate to? Does that mean the end of the universe just because it hits that end date??? OH, sorry, I forgot the world ended 31st, Dec, 1999....

Actually, a computer clock, as of right now, will run just fine until sometime in 2038. 64 bit processing will change that, though, and allow it to work just fine until sometime around year 230,000,000 (give or take a few million). That's going to take time to implement, though.

The Dec 31, 1999, issue was not due to the clocks stopping, but rather due to how to have code read data that was written 30 years ago and didn't include the centry.

Anyway, you did ask. I can be more pedantic, if you wish :)

[Slytovhand]

Well, no that's fine. (and cool). The point I was making was that 1 calender, across the entire planet (and, let's face it, making those things out of rock is no easy job!) ends on a particular date... so what???

Oh.. I get you now... 'clocks' =/= codes.. cool!

Maybe some high priest actually wanted them to go on further, but the artisans told them to go stuff it, it's bloody hard work, chipping away at that stone.. they could do it themselves if they really wanted it that bad....

[PepperElf]

and 2012 is the next year manson will be available for parole... hmm

[ArenaBoy]

We've had so many end of the world theories that I don't think the simplest life form could reproduce if they were all true.

Last night I went to see "Inglorious Basterds" and one of the previews was for that Roland Emmerich film "2012". That movie is going to cause a lot of unnecessary paranoia among the conspiracy nuts. I can see the tinfoil hats being in full view too.

[Mr Slugger]

Honestly I think the end of the world is coming, just not on that date. I mean let's face it the world is going down the crapper. Eventually it's gonna get us, but I don't think anyone can forecast the day.

[bunnyboy]

Interestingly, the Mayan Long count actually ends something like 16 septillion years AFTER it started (about 3500 BCE) which IIRC is about the same time when it's proposed the universe will die a heat death/collapse in on itself/in general end) but as for the 2012 thing, meh civilization might end if enough morons believe in it (hell the Kali Yuga's a long ways from ending, and Siddhartha's Dharma hasn't passed from the earth yet so there's at least TWO prophecies that don't point to an end of current time scenario not coming true)

In general it's half the reason I wish I could slap some of the newapagiccans around me in the back of the head a bit.

[Hyena Dandy]

I'm fairly good with knowledge of the Maya. The Maya just believed that was the end of their long-count calendar, not the end of the world. People are freaked out because it reaches zero, but the Maya were not saying that was the end of the world. Indeed, they predicted that after 2012 we would enter a new age of piece and prosperity.

So, yeah...



Interestingly, the Mayan Long count actually ends something like 16 septillion years

Bunnyboy, I'm gonna ask you to cite your sources for that one. I've done a lot of study on the Maya, and I've never found something that said that. I'm pretty good at the Maya date system.

The long count starts at 19.19.19.19.19 and December 12th 2012 is when it hits 0.0.0.0.0... And then starts over at 19.19.19.19.19

The periods are because the Maya use a base 20 system, as opposed to our base 10. So really the number for them would be something like if we had a calendar that reached 0 every 99999 years.

[Fashion Lad!]

My opinion is summed up quite nicely in the following:

http://www.cracked.com/article_17445_6-best-2012-apocalypse-theories-are-all-bullshit.html

I agree with BroomJockey.

Besides, you can take any large body of written work, pick certain letters out of it and claim it says something or predicted something. Anyone read the Bible Code? Once they circled out letters, it looked like a word find at best.

The Mayan calendar probably ended due to the fact that they were starving to death where they were because their population had reached an unsupportable number and they weren't getting the rain they needed for their crops.

[Hyena Dandy]

The Mayan calendar probably ended due to the fact that they were starving to death where they were because their population had reached an unsupportable number and they weren't getting the rain they needed for their crops.

The Mayan calendar was a fixed thing, it didn't vary based on their situation.

The calendar has always counted down, and December 12, 2012 is when it hits 0.

[Fashion Lad!]

Meh. I never got too much into end of the world scenarios or when it's going to happen. I did read up on the Mayans, but not their prophecies.

[bunnyboy]

I'm fairly good with knowledge of the Maya. The Maya just believed that was the end of their long-count calendar, not the end of the world. People are freaked out because it reaches zero, but the Maya were not saying that was the end of the world. Indeed, they predicted that after 2012 we would enter a new age of piece and prosperity.

So, yeah...




Bunnyboy, I'm gonna ask you to cite your sources for that one. I've done a lot of study on the Maya, and I've never found something that said that. I'm pretty good at the Maya date system.

The long count starts at 19.19.19.19.19 and December 12th 2012 is when it hits 0.0.0.0.0... And then starts over at 19.19.19.19.19

The periods are because the Maya use a base 20 system, as opposed to our base 10. So really the number for them would be something like if we had a calendar that reached 0 every 99999 years.

http://www.famsi.org/research/vanstone/2012/index.html for one, for another the Mayanists and Schele & Freide seem to have made this their career goal, and G. Jeffrey MacDonald "Does Maya calendar predict 2012 apocalypse?" USA Today 3/27/07. for the third, Plus as I said, NONE of the other end times prophecies have even come remotely true in general mellinianlism is one of the worst types of eschatological ideas, and makes me wanna Gibbs Slap people just for buying into hype, nothing happened in 1000 CE, nothing happened in 2000 CE, and nothing's gonna happen in 2012 CE, mainly because, great astronomers or not, it's shown nowhere else.

Of course they did regard it as a great clebration day, since much like us celebrating hte millenium it only comes about once every 5217 years or so.

[Daskinor]

I remember reading somewhere that allot of archaeologists and historians are not even sure the Calendar ends on December 12, 2012. That it could be off by decades, but most likely a few months to a few years.

[bunnyboy]

And personally I think it's a bit of a "Nostradamus Effect." Some things they got right, but damn if I will accept a definitive date for the end of the world, hell all we know about Ragnarok is it will happen, and much like the second coming of Christianity, there is NO SET DATE.

And like I said, 90% of the other end of the world prophecies that have a certain "date" are either thousands of years off, or are something that must be such (ie the Buddhist coming of the next Buddha being when Siddhartha's Dharma has passed from the world, Ragnarok, and even if looked at right just about ALL eschatology)

This would be the real reason, it's just mellinialism wrapped in ancient Meso-American clothing, and as said before I hate this because unless it's something along the lines of the sun going red dwarf or the heat death of the universe (which are still only theoretical on when they'll happen) they're nothing more than hype over ZOMG-End-Ov-Teh-Wurld!!!1111elventy1!

[crashhelmet]

I'm unable to cite specific references because I did all of this research while in high school oh so many moons ago, but I can add to the discussion. Not about the Mayan calendar though. The Aztec Calendar.

The Aztec Calendar is composed of 7 rings and works its way clockwise from the center out to the last ring. When each ring is completed, it is said that the world ends. When the 7th ring completes, it is believed that that is when Quetzalcoatl (The Aztec version of Jesus, if you will) will return and Judgement Day will occur. The Aztec Codec says we are currently in the 7th ring of the calendar. The symbol at the completion of the 7th ring is Ollin, the Nahuatl word for Earthquake. I don't remember anything about the world being reborn or recreated after this final ring. The previous 6 yes, but not after the 7th.

There had been much debate about how to translate the calendar because it's composed on 2 different systems. One is lunar and the other is solar, if I remember right. One for religious purposes and the other for agricultural. At the time I did this research (1992-93) it was believed that the 7th ring would complete its cycle on 12/24/2004. I remember this date because it's Christmas Eve and I always thought that would be a fucked up day for the world to end, but found the irony when tieing it into the Christian religions. It's since been changed to go along with the other "experts" that believe in or are jumping on the 2012 bandwagon.

Here's something to chew on though. The Aztecs were a migratory people that were told to travel until they found an eagle clutching a snake in its talons. It is often speculated that they traveled from as far as South East Asia, due to the similarities in cultures with the tribes of that time.

On 12/26/2004, 2 days after what was once calculated to be the day the world was to be destroyed by an earthquake, an earthquake happened with a magnitude of 9+ causing a tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands of people in multiple different countries in South East Asia.

The rest is semantics. 600 years ago, we didn't know how big the world was or whether or not it was round. How big was their "world"? Something may happen in 2012, but I doubt it will be the Armageddon.

CH

[bunnyboy]

Something may happen in 2012, but I doubt it will be the Armageddon.

I believe Penn put it best, I predict that in the next year something bad will happen.

Prophecies that are general almost never turn out to be true... well unless you look at it from AFTER the event.

[Hyena Dandy]

The rest is semantics. 600 years ago, we didn't know how big the world was or whether or not it was round. How big was their "world"? Something may happen in 2012, but I doubt it will be the Armageddon.

CH




Not to nitpick... But yeah, we did. We knew that in Greek times.

But I see your points.

And the problem with using an ancient Central American calendar to predict the end of the world is that the books went BAMF.

I don't know how the AZTECS did it, but when they Maya made a prediction, they didn't mess around with "Within a week or two"

If the Maya HAD said the world would end (as opposed to saying they'd have to go to the store and get new calendars) and the world ended the next day, that would not count as the Maya being right. That would be a coincidence. For your description to be right, the Aztec would have had to predict the end of the world being a couple days later than we thought they prediced.

And another thing, doomsdays aren't things you can muck around with. This isn't Evan Almighty where you can get away with predicting a disaster of some sort will happen and its the end of the world. The end of the world isn't just "The end of the known world" its the END OF THE WORLD

There's some mighty fishy translating if you expect me to believe the Aztec said the world would end on December 24, and by that they meant that there would be a big disaster for something about the size of the Aztec empire, but very far away, and it wouldn't really be the DESTRUCTION of it, but it would make things REALLY SUCK.

Now, I don't speak Nahuatl, but I do speak a few other meso-American languages, and I do not know of ANY where you would have that much ambiguity in your description.





Also, if the Aztec were right the Maya would probably be wrong. Building a pyramid doesn't make you experts on the future. The Maya and the Aztec were very different, religiously, culturally, etc. Even assuming that an Aztec prophecy WAS fulfilled, saying this means the Maya will have THEIRS fulfilled is like saying that because the Oracle at Delphi got something right, we should follow prophecies of the Greek Orthodox church. I mean... They're both in pretty much the same place...

Saying the Aztec were right about the end of the world (which they seem not to have been, but I'll go with your Indonesian Earthquake=End of the World theory) should mean the Maya were WRONG.








And yes, that post WAS a lot more aggressive than you would expect knowing me, but I REALLY hate people equating the Maya to the Aztecs.

[BroomJockey]

There's some mighty fishy translating if you expect me to believe the Aztec said the world would end on December 24, and by that they meant that there would be a big disaster for something about the size of the Aztec empire, but very far away, and it wouldn't really be the DESTRUCTION of it, but it would make things REALLY SUCK.


Okay, here's a nitpick back then. "End of the world" usually means to people "end of civilization," not "the planet explodes." This would give exactly the amount of leeway required for the big disaster to hit a region and radically change it. After all, for the people in that area, it would be the end of their civilization and way of life, the "end of their world." So even a global prediction wouldn't require a doomsday prophecy. What if there's simply a massive pulse from a star going supernova relatively close to us, and all electronics are wiped out. The end of the world as we know it.

So you can nitpick about Aztecs and Maya, and about "regional" and "global" disasters, but when it comes down to it, you're still just depending on people using the term "end of the world" your way, and not another.

[crashhelmet]

Not to nitpick... But yeah, we did. We knew that in Greek times.


Umm... Wasn't part of Columbus's journey to prove that the world was indeed round and not flat?


I don't know how the AZTECS did it, but when they Maya made a prediction, they didn't mess around with "Within a week or two"

If the Maya HAD said the world would end (as opposed to saying they'd have to go to the store and get new calendars) and the world ended the next day, that would not count as the Maya being right. That would be a coincidence. For your description to be right, the Aztec would have had to predict the end of the world being a couple days later than we thought they prediced.


I never said the Aztecs changed or guesstimated the day their world would end. I said the so called "experts" did. They may have been off in their calculations. hell, they can't even come to an exact day for the Mayan Calendar either. Some believe 12/21 and others believe 12/23. Even the Mayans themselves couldn't come to an agreement on how long the "Long Count" calendar was. Some believed 13 Baktuns, others 20.


And another thing, doomsdays aren't things you can muck around with. This isn't Evan Almighty where you can get away with predicting a disaster of some sort will happen and its the end of the world. The end of the world isn't just "The end of the known world" its the END OF THE WORLD


But as I pointed out in my original reply, we don't know how big their world was. All that we know is that their world had "ended" before.


There's some mighty fishy translating if you expect me to believe the Aztec said the world would end on December 24, and by that they meant that there would be a big disaster for something about the size of the Aztec empire, but very far away, and it wouldn't really be the DESTRUCTION of it, but it would make things REALLY SUCK.

Now, I don't speak Nahuatl, but I do speak a few other meso-American languages, and I do not know of ANY where you would have that much ambiguity in your description.


The date was calculated by "experts" in the same fashion that the end of the Long Count has been calculated.

To compare both the Aztecs and Mayans again, most of their tomes and archives were destroyed when they were each invaded by the Spaniards. We have no clue what information was included in what was destroyed. For the Aztecs, we have no idea when their calendar was first created and in what form it was in. It could've been in a much smaller, even written form before being recreated in 24 tons of sandstone for all we know. This calendar may have traveled with them from wherever it was that they migrated from or it may have been created after arriving in Tenochtitlan.

The prediction could've been made prior to them leaving or after they arrived. Maybe these "experts" are right now and there will be a devastating earthquake on December 24th, 2012. The point I brought up was one of coincidence based on speculation about the origination of the people, with the intentions of making people think about what we know and what we think we know. They don't know how far they emigrated from. some say South East Asia. Some say the Utah/Arizona border. There's even a movement that claims Chicomoztoc is in what is now known as Wisconsin. Others say they didn't travel far at all and came from northern Mexico. They may have traveled from the south for all we know.


Also, if the Aztec were right the Maya would probably be wrong. Building a pyramid doesn't make you experts on the future. The Maya and the Aztec were very different, religiously, culturally, etc. Even assuming that an Aztec prophecy WAS fulfilled, saying this means the Maya will have THEIRS fulfilled is like saying that because the Oracle at Delphi got something right, we should follow prophecies of the Greek Orthodox church. I mean... They're both in pretty much the same place...

Saying the Aztec were right about the end of the world (which they seem not to have been, but I'll go with your Indonesian Earthquake=End of the World theory) should mean the Maya were WRONG.


Once again, we don't know if they were right or if they were wrong. The Aztecs didn't change the Gregorian date their Calendar would complete its cycle. The "experts" did.


And yes, that post WAS a lot more aggressive than you would expect knowing me, but I REALLY hate people equating the Maya to the Aztecs.

They were a people, not separated by much, that very well could've been a part of the same civilization at one point. Legends say that there were seven Nahuatl tribes that originally left Chicomoztoc. One tribe was said to travel as far south as Nicaragua. They could've been the same people, with beliefs altered by politics and/or education.

CH

CH

[Boozy]

Umm... Wasn't part of Columbus's journey to prove that the world was indeed round and not flat?

Every educated person knew that the world was round by the time Columbus was born. The story that Columbus was out to prove it is just a myth.

[AdminAssistant]

Columbus was out to find a quicker path to China/India. And despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, he was convinced that he had found it. And yet we give this man his own holiday?

[BroomJockey]

Every educated person knew that the world was round by the time Columbus was born. The story that Columbus was out to prove it is just a myth.

What's more, the circumference of the world was measured to an astoundingly accurate degree by the Ancient Greeks using a stick and the sun.

And trigonometry, but still. A STICK!