The End of The World

[Difdi]

There is an outside chance, roughly estimated at 1 in 50 million, that all life on Earth will simply end in the middle of June of 2008. And not just life, but the physical existence of the planet (as well as a good sized chunk of the solar system).

This catastrophe, if it occurs, will be 100% due to human activity, and can be easily prevented. But the odds are only 1 in 50 million it will happen at all. If it does not happen, great progress will be made in physics.

Should the human actions leading to the possibility be stopped?

[Boozy]

If it does not happen, great progress will be made in physics.

That's an understatement. The results of the large hadron collider experiment could literally unlock the secrets of the universe.

The potential for an unprecedented surge in scientific knowledge is huge. The chance for destruction is so small its inconsequential.

I was initially surprised that people (without an interest in particle physics) were talking about this. But when I thought about it, it makes sense. So many of us are afraid of science. Its ingrained into the psyches of those of us born and raised in the nuclear age. There is a pervasive attitude that science is something to be afraid of. And its because we don't understand it.

The solution is not to prevent scientific exploration, but to learn more about it. Stem cell research is more likely to save human lives than cause the devaluation of them. Modern and well-regulated nuclear plants are more likely to become a source of clean renewable energy than cause meltdowns.

And the LHC experiment at CERN could create a second renaissance in the field of physics. Its not going to destroy the planet. Anyone worried about the end of mankind should join an environmental or peace movement. A very basic threat-risk analysis tells me that mankind isn't going to be brought down by a particle accelerator.

[Greenday]

1 in 50 million? I'd relate that to the word "insignificant". I did a little googling about it and the stuff they are working on fascinates me. One of my teachers sorely tempted me into doing research in that field. One of my classes, Physical Chemistry, is a course I'm taking next semester which is this stuff. Supposed to be the hardest class I'll take, but I love theory and this is as heavy as theory gets. It's without a doubt worth the risk. Nothing horrible will happen and life will go on as we know it, just with more knowledge for the world.

[Dreamstalker]

"We've never had a completely successful test of this equipment."
"I blame myself."
"So do I."
"No sense worrying about it now."

The "risk" of anything bad happening can't even be called a risk, really. Nobody has any idea what could happen, the gains stand to be huge.

[lordlundar]

I say go for it. If it succesful, it means a great boon for science and could project us to a class 2 society (colonizing the solar system) within my lifetime.

If it fails, no one will be around to care.

[blas87]

Forgive me for being into conspiracies, but I am more willing to believe the government will concoct an infection/virus much like those in popular zombie movies before the world destroys itself.

Yes, I am paranoid.

[Difdi]

The odds of 1 in 50 million were an informed guess by a scientist.

The thing is though...many lottery games are set up so that it's possible for no one to win. But people still do, often at odds of hundreds of millions to one.

The odds, for example, of winning the grand prize of the sweepstakes game the Burger King restaurant chain is currently running, are close to 1 in 287 million. And it's possible no one will find the grand prize ticket. But it's also possible someone will, and people have won such prizes at such odds in the past.

In that light, 1 in 50 million doesn't sound like very good odds at all.

I say go for it. If it succesful, it means a great boon for science and could project us to a class 2 society (colonizing the solar system) within my lifetime.


Go look up Project NERVA and Project Orion. If they hadn't been canceled, we could already be a class 2 society right now.

[MMATM]

Yes but you have to take into account that that 1 in 287 million is "per play" and that millions of people eat at Burger King and suchlike restaurants all the time. If there were 5 million Large Hadron Colliders being tested all on the same day then the odds of 1 in 50 million per collider would be bad (if they weren't all testing the same thing, and each test were equally likely to cause the end of the universe), but the odds of any huge catastrophe happening are, well, 1 in 50 million (or the next best estimate).

It's part of human psychology to believe that odds as great as to make them all but impossible (winning the lottery, et cetera) do not apply to the individual. That's why so many people believe that they have the potential to become a famous singer/get drafted into the NFL/make billions on the stock market/win the lottery when many millions before them (equally or better suited) have failed in the past. It's arguably one of humanity's best and most irrational qualities.

And in any case, the 1 in 50 million guesstimate is just that. Nobody can know or calculate even within many orders of magnitude the likelihood of universal fuckupery by the LHC, simply because it has no equal or appreciable precedent. And I agree that if the universe (or just Earth, even) ceases to exist in June, I won't expect many people to complain.

[Slytovhand]

1 in 50 million?? Meh.

It was bigger odds than that of us being here in the first place...

And, if the next shift in the magnetic poles happens in 1000 years, then we'd be out of here then anyway.

BEsides... there's always meteorites, comets, war, Blas' mentioned consipiracies, etc...


I think I'll do a new thread or 2 on a couple of subjects this relates to.....

[ArenaBoy]

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I LOVE these insipid theories.

[Difdi]

Yes but you have to take into account that that 1 in 287 million is "per play" and that millions of people eat at Burger King and suchlike restaurants all the time. If there were 5 million Large Hadron Colliders being tested all on the same day then the odds of 1 in 50 million per collider would be bad (if they weren't all testing the same thing, and each test were equally likely to cause the end of the universe), but the odds of any huge catastrophe happening are, well, 1 in 50 million (or the next best estimate).


You might have a point if they intended to fire the collider once then dismantle it. But each particle they fire through it is 1 play. How many particles per second can it fire?

[Boozy]

You might have a point if they intended to fire the collider once then dismantle it. But each particle they fire through it is 1 play.

That's not what the scientists meant when they said "1 in 50 million". If you're talking per particle, the chances are something like 1 in a trillion each time.

[MystyGlyttyr]

I have to admit that on a deep, purely primal level, this scares the shit out of me. I wish it wouldn't happen. As a scientific mind, I am curious as hell about what's going to happen and what we can find from this. But there's a lizardy part of my brain that wants to retreat into a cave as far as possible and hide away.

It's not for any reason I can explain. I scoff at the thought of the Mayans predicting the end of the world, I'm unconcerned about global warming thus far, I don't believe the government caused 9-11...I'm skeptical of most all "doomsday" scenarios. But for some reason, this puts my guts in knots.

There's no rhyme or reason to that, though. I hope it's just that I've spent too much time researching the chaos of physics and not something else.

[ArenaBoy]

That's an understatement. The results of the large hadron collider experiment could literally unlock the secrets of the universe.

The potential for an unprecedented surge in scientific knowledge is huge. The chance for destruction is so small its inconsequential.

I was initially surprised that people (without an interest in particle physics) were talking about this. But when I thought about it, it makes sense. So many of us are afraid of science. Its ingrained into the psyches of those of us born and raised in the nuclear age. There is a pervasive attitude that science is something to be afraid of. And its because we don't understand it.

The solution is not to prevent scientific exploration, but to learn more about it. Stem cell research is more likely to save human lives than cause the devaluation of them. Modern and well-regulated nuclear plants are more likely to become a source of clean renewable energy than cause meltdowns.

And the LHC experiment at CERN could create a second renaissance in the field of physics. Its not going to destroy the planet. Anyone worried about the end of mankind should join an environmental or peace movement. A very basic threat-risk analysis tells me that mankind isn't going to be brought down by a particle accelerator.

As I will say: Links?

[Boozy]

I have most of my information from books and magazines, but the CERN homepage is good for online reading:

http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en/LHC/LHC-en.html

This site attempts to explain the experiments to the public and let people know why it's so exciting.

I see that the spreading hysteria has necessitated a "Safety" section designed to put minds at ease.

[ArenaBoy]

You know, before we even consider the thought of colonizing other planets; we need to clean our shit up here. There's a certain Calvin and Hobbes comic that stated that well.

[MMATM]

You might have a point if they intended to fire the collider once then dismantle it. But each particle they fire through it is 1 play. How many particles per second can it fire?

I believe the "1 in 50 million" odds were quoted to represent the chance of the first firing causing the end of the world. Every subsequent firing would have the same or approximately the same outcome. So if the first firing doesn't cause the world to end, then neither will the second, third, fourth, or nth firing.

It's like playing the lottery with the same number every day, and once the winning number has been chosen on day 1 it will always be the same winning number every day for the rest of time. So if you win (or blow up the world, as the case may be) the first time, you'll win forever (or be dead) but if you lose the first time (no 'splodey) then you will lose (or not die in horrible quantum death) forever.

[rahmota]

This doesnt scare me in the slightest. Like MMATM said the odds are for the first time the flip the switch not each and everytime they do it. So if the first time they run the beast we all die in a momentary flicker of quantum reversing then oh well. I read somewhere there are similar odds that according to quantum math that all the atoms in your body could phase out at the same time anyhow.

Not to mention I'm more worried about the odds of me getting from one side of the street to the other without getting run over by the nut job in the lexus, I'm more interested in the odds of that boeing goign over loosing a wing or something. I'm a lot more concerned about a lot more immediately deadly thigns than to worry about some theoretical potential death.

I mean I read that some of the scientists that worked on the first atomic bomb where a bit concerned that when they set it off they where goign to set fire to the atmosphere and kill us all as there was a slight chance of it. But it didnt set fire to the earth, the old sovun Tsar bomba 50 megaton blast didnt do it. So worrying about this is not on my day planner lets just say.

Besides which there are a lot more probable TEOTWAWKI causes available to be scared of. Some of them human made too.

Whats even more interesting is that how would we know if something like that did occur? Would we get blown into another universe or quantum state where the only difference was the result of a coin flip was the opposite of what it would have been in the old universe? Just thinking you know.