Will ps3/xbox360 be vintage?

[insertNameHere]

After picking up a NES at a garage sale today because I have always wanted one. I wonder will the current systems ever be sought after like the ones that started it all or will they just disappear.

While it can be nice to run an emulator, for me there is nothing like having the original thing in your hands and playing it, plus it weird how simple the system is. The ability to replace the connector using only a standard screwdriver is beyond nice. The current systems go above and beyond the confusing aspect.

Of course, the simple electronics are why 26 years after the system was made minus a few issues with aforementioned connector it still runs perfect. With failure rates on the 360, I see them being extremely hard to repair 20years from now.

[jackfaire]

PS3s I think will be sought after but X Box many of it's games are either on other consoles or PC games so not as likely people will see the console as anything but a tool to play the games.

[Gravekeeper]

No. For three reasons:

1) Technological dev cycles are becoming shorter. Sony and Microsoft design hardware around a business plan that involves replacing said hardware every few years now. They don't want you to hang on to your old PS3, they want you to shell out another month's rent on the PS4, PS5, PS6, etc. Additionally, modern consoles ( Nintendo aside ) are not exactly built for the long haul. You could run a NES over with a truck, it'd be fine. The X-Box however had a 50% chance of just melting itself into a brick right out of the box.

Contrast that to the golden age of consoles: The third generation during the 80s. The NES was on the market for 7 years before it was replaced by the SNES, and the NES itself was not even discontinued until 2003.

So it began with a 7 year cycle that lasted till farkin' 2003. In the current generation:

Nintendo uses a 5 year cycle.
Microsoft uses a 4 year cycle.
Sony uses a 5 year cycle.

All three discontinue the last console shortly after the new one launchs, unless it can be milked for moar $ ( Sony ). Sony and Microsoft also aim a huge chunk of their marketing towards first adopters. Upselling how much bigger and better their next console will be. They do not want you to keep the old one.

No one thinks a first gen iPod is vintage. They think its quant and look down on you for owning it. Then they show off their brand new $600 iPhone 2. Going to be the same with the current gen of consoles me think. The technolgy has changed, the attitude has changed, the business has changed and the creative well is drying up in the main stream. Just like Hollywood.

Do you think Transformers 2 will be a vintage classic movie in 10 years?



2) There are very few classic games on the current gen consoles. Especially for Sony and Microsoft. The NES and SNES are vintage because they had a massive amount of unique and classic games everyone remembers. The X-Box 360 and PS3 have very few games that are even exclusive ( Everything is cross platform now ) and fewer still you could call classic. The Wii is off in its own weird little corner with a handful of unique titles, but the novelty of the Wii's first generation motion control will dull very quickly as technology moves on.

When you think of a vintage console like the NES or SNES, what do you think? Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Final Fantasy, etc. When you think of the X-Box and PS3 what do you think? Halo and Call of Duty. Woo. Two embarrassingly unoriginal pew pew fests that are being milked for sequels till the end of time. When you think of the Wiim what do you think? Well, nothing really.

No classic games to make any of the current gen consoles worth seeking out later on.


3) Emulation, re-releases and backwards compadibility

Emulation is a much more viable then pulling the NES out of the basement. So is just grabbing old NES titles off the Nintendo Store. Finally, so you're not so pissed off about buying the PS9, they'll make it backwards compadible with the PS7 and 8 so you can still play your fav games.

The actual need for the physical console to enjoy the classic games you're thinking off for said console has diminished greatly.


Sooo, no. >.>

[Ginger Tea]

Plus how many moving parts in a NES/SNES Master System/Mega Drive (aka Genisis)?
None to a few, yet all modern consoles are DVD/BluRay based and 10 years from now, thats probably not going to work even if the chips themselves do.

And the criticle chips didn't need heat sinks or fans cooling them all the time, these could over heat and kill your current gen console.

[Gravekeeper]

Indeed. The NES had 3 moving parts: Two buttons and a cartridge tray.

If anything stopped working, you could fix it by blowing on it. >.>

[insertNameHere]

Yeah, and solid state electronics are resilient and harder to damage than optical media and their drives. Considering how hard it can be sometimes to repair a 360 yourself when they are still in production.
Not to mention that the NES will in reason deal with whatever power you want to put into it because the original 9V AC is converted to about 13V dc according to the schematic, which gets dropped to 5v by a 7805. So if I remember right the 78XX series needs about +2V over the desired voltage up to a +30V difference, meaning it one of the few electronics that you can swap the power supply and have it really be a non-issue, everything else lets out the magic smoke.

[dendawg]

I think maybe the question should be, considering the fragility of current systems, will they even last long enough to be considered vintage?

[insertNameHere]

^ Yeah, that is basically what I was asking. And it was pointed out many of the games are hardly ground breaking anymore or that you MUST play. I hope if they make a metal gear solid 5 it comes out for Xbox.... im done with sony

[jackfaire]

NES is making a profit on the Wii because essentially they added motion controls to the Game Cube and gave it internet access. They make a profit on every unit sold.

Sony and Microsoft are operating at a loss on both of their newer systems and have to make the money back in games. Hopefully that encourages them to really advance the technology when they release the next gen.

The smart bet would be to make consoles so that it is possible to upgrade them. With the company not through hacking. I am just buying a PS3 in the next few weeks and only got a Wii this summer because I resolutely refused to pay more than a month's rent for even one console.

If they come out with next gen anytime soon I may just switch to PC gaming where I have a longer technological window before having to make changes to my system.

[Gravekeeper]

NES is making a profit on the Wii because essentially they added motion controls to the Game Cube and gave it internet access. They make a profit on every unit sold.


Yeah, the Wii was actually rather clever as it opened up an entirely different market and more importantly was very affordable. Something Microsoft and especially Sony forgot about. Problem is lately Nintendo has also forgotten about what sells their systems: Awesome games.



Sony and Microsoft are operating at a loss on both of their newer systems and have to make the money back in games. Hopefully that encourages them to really advance the technology when they release the next gen.

Advancing the technology is their problem though. Advancing the technology means having a console thats expensive to produce and risks being sold at a loss even with a massive price tag. When you're focusing on the realm of gaming that Sony and Microsoft do ( Power over innovation ) you really, really need good games to sell the hardware. Because the hardware is just a statistical improvement over its predecessor.

This is why Nintendo slapped them around with its genitals for a few years. It certainly wasn't hardware power, it was innovation and solid game titles. Its becoming harder and harder to have exclusive titles, everything is cross platform. Unless you make said titles yourself, like Nintendo. Which has always been one of their big advantages. No one else has Mario, Zelda, Metroid, etc. But everyone else has Call of Duty. Studios are increasingly interested in milking every console market at the same time with one title. There's little interest in allowing any of your products to be a console exclusive.



The smart bet would be to make consoles so that it is possible to upgrade them. With the company not through hacking.

Ironically, it was the N64 that pulled that off last. It had a memory expansion upgrade mid way through its life and it was required for some of the latter games like Goldeneye.

I think the big problem there though is that people buy a console because they don't want to dick around with a PC. But consoles are becoming more and more like PCs anyway. The X-Box is barely more than a PC with a controller. Still, you buy a console for the assurance that every game made for said console will run on said console. Once the console gets tiered between upgraded and non-upgraded, it opens a whole new headache for consumers and developers alike.



If they come out with next gen anytime soon I may just switch to PC gaming where I have a longer technological window before having to make changes to my system.

Yeah, and at this point with consoles, cheaper upgrades. Which is scary.

[Ginger Tea]

The smart bet would be to make consoles so that it is possible to upgrade them. With the company not through hacking. I am just buying a PS3 in the next few weeks and only got a Wii this summer because I resolutely refused to pay more than a month's rent for even one console.

I agree with Gravekeeper, consoles being a fixed platform ensure products work, how many PC games have you returned or not bought due to not enough ram, too slow a cpu not good enough graphics.
How many console games have you returned due to them not working? (OK I know alot end up having to be patched online these days, but they should work out of the box first time, PC's are the ones meant to have patches and upgrades.)

Android phones are plentiful, therefore so are the ammount of configurations your game would have to cater for or cut off the bare minimum set up that might be the largest user base, yet Apple only has to worry about iPhone3/4/Touch and iPad/2 5 potential versions reduced to 2 if you work on lowest option 3/touch and iPad1 if you make an enhanced GFX version.
I'm not a fan of Apple, but atleast developers know that if it works on their iPhone it will work on your iPhone, it involves more handset testing to be sure for everything else on Android cos its too damn open.

[Hyena Dandy]

It depends on what you mean by vintage. Will it be still used regularly? Probably not. But I think it will still be bought and sold by people interested in videogames. It'll have a much smaller market than the NES/SNES does, but there will still be a market, because it does have its place in gaming history.

[Gravekeeper]

It depends on what you mean by vintage. Will it be still used regularly? Probably not. But I think it will still be bought and sold by people interested in videogames. It'll have a much smaller market than the NES/SNES does, but there will still be a market, because it does have its place in gaming history.

That comes back to hardware reliability though. How long as these things really going to last? The X-Box especially has a reputation for being, well, a piece of crap really. They're also more difficult to repair than an older consoles and individual parts are more delicate. They'll be discontinued pretty fast too so parts will become a problem rather quick.

They're just not built to last. They don't want them to last, its not profitable. -.-

You could toss the NES in a moldy basement for 20 years and it'd be fine. If I tripped and hit my toe on the X-Box I'd be worried I damaged it.

[Andara Bledin]

You could toss the NES in a moldy basement for 20 years and it'd be fine. If I tripped and hit my toe on the X-Box I'd be worried I damaged it.
I have a couple of original, first gen Gameboys that I bought second-hand and have treated like shit for 20 years that still work.

^-.-^

[jackfaire]

I often wonder is it that they aren't built to last or just that more sensitive equipment?

It's a legitimate question because the lower tech something is the fewer electrical components it tends to have less things to go wrong with it.

A food processor to grind up and smash your fruits and Veggies.

The electric one sitting on your counter is more likely to break down than the Mortar and pestle you have.

For obvious reasons.

[insertNameHere]

Ironically, it was the N64 that pulled that off last. It had a memory expansion upgrade mid way through its life and it was required for some of the latter games like Goldeneye.




Actually, Goldeneye didn't require the upgrade it was perfect dark... basically the same thing with more options that actually threw in some of the exact goldeneye maps.

And as someone pointed out upgraded consoles are a pain, having one standard is nice. ALSO, remember that the XBOX had an HD DVD drive that you could upgrade too? Ah... right it went to the wayside because had it been standard, it might have just been able to compete with blu ray.

Another thing, I think I mentioned before having the consoles break is PERFECT marketing scam, you have all these titles and backwards compatibility is a joke these days only select titles are able to work usually the most popular ones. So, if you want your games to work you need another system which usually people buy new because used systems are hit or miss. OH yeah, and now they in the tech cycle where they MAKE money on the system.

[lordlundar]

I often wonder is it that they aren't built to last or just that more sensitive equipment?

It's a legitimate question because the lower tech something is the fewer electrical components it tends to have less things to go wrong with it.

A food processor to grind up and smash your fruits and Veggies.

The electric one sitting on your counter is more likely to break down than the Mortar and pestle you have.

For obvious reasons.

It's a technical application of K.I.S.S., or Keep It Simple Stupid.

A mortar and pestle is two pieces, often made of granite or marble, and that's it. If one piece fails, you know it and get a cheap replacement. The food processor has dozens, if not hundreds of individual pieces, any of which can fail and all of which require a fair bit of money to replace because it costs a fair bit to make.

There is also an issue of quality. A car built in the 50's has roughly the same manufacturing process that is currently used, or more modern techniques are more precise and guarantee consistent and better results. So why are cars from the 50's so much more durable? Because fiberglass and plastic are lighter and cheaper to use than steel.

[Andara Bledin]

So why are cars from the 50's so much more durable? Because fiberglass and plastic are lighter and cheaper to use than steel.
Short term gains over long-term losses.

Most people don't look past the next few months, much less the next few years. Consumerism has been sold to the public at large and we have become a disposable society where everybody expects to have traded up for the latest and greatest before the shelf life of the current batch has run out so the fact that things aren't built to last only matters to those who pay attention to the long view.

^-.-^

[Ginger Tea]

Modern consoles also flow-solder the chips to the board so you cannot just swap out a duff GPU or other componant.
8 bit home computers and consoles, even when using custom chips not available via radio shack/maplins would fit the normal breadboard sized holes (OK without looking at a pcb, there may be one or two too tiny to do so) so you could remake such a console with mini wires spaghetting up the place instead of a PCB, yet modern chips require nanometer or some such precicion soldering and thus breadboards for such chips would be impossible.

[jackfaire]

A mortar and pestle is two pieces, often made of granite or marble, and that's it. If one piece fails, you know it and get a cheap replacement. The food processor has dozens, if not hundreds of individual pieces, any of which can fail and all of which require a fair bit of money to replace because it costs a fair bit to make.


That was kind of the point I was going for. Often people mistake this for being a conspiracy instead of the logical conclusion of more moving parts.

[Hyena Dandy]

That comes back to hardware reliability though. How long as these things really going to last? The X-Box especially has a reputation for being, well, a piece of crap really. They're also more difficult to repair than an older consoles and individual parts are more delicate. They'll be discontinued pretty fast too so parts will become a problem rather quick.

They're just not built to last. They don't want them to last, its not profitable. -.-

You could toss the NES in a moldy basement for 20 years and it'd be fine. If I tripped and hit my toe on the X-Box I'd be worried I damaged it.

As I said, if someone is a collector of vintage electronics, I doubt they would care how well it worked. If they really needed to, they could replace some parts. I doubt they'll be actively used, but they likely will still be bought and sold.

Also, I think that the way that games are made these days is more delicate than the NES. The hardware is more complicated, so its easier to break.

They're not built to last, but that doesn't mean they won't. They won't in working condition, but considering emulators and digital distribution, I think that the people who want to play 360 or PS3 or Wii games on original 360s and PS3s and Wiis will be even less 'standard' gamers than people these days who still actively use their NESes. I'm thinking the games will be digitally distributed, emulated, and pirated enough that there won't be a real NEED to own the original systems if you want to play the game, and therefore, no need for the original system to remain in working order. I can still see a reason to own a N64 or a SNES, genesis, Atari 2600, whatever. But I think the future of gaming is digital. The only people who will still want a working-order PS3 or 360 will be dedicated 'classic gaming' hobbiests, and if there's one thing I've learned about hobbiests, is that they'll spend money. They'll know how the things work and buy/make their own parts. The other people will be collectors, who are separate from hobbiests in that they don't CARE how well what they collect works.

And additionally, I think there are games from this generation which will be considered 'classics' 20-30 years from now. Which ones, I'm not sure. I'd have to sit down and consider it for a while. But there are games worthy of being called classics. And there are others that aren't worthy of the title that will be called classics anyway. But to say there won't be is remarkably short-sighted.

Honestly, now I'm curious about what games will be called 'classics'

I think I'll make a thread about that.

[dendawg]

But I think the future of gaming is digital.

Download-only consoles will never be feasible, at least not until the antiquated notion of bandwidth "caps" is done away with.

[Hyena Dandy]

Download-only consoles will never be feasible, at least not until the antiquated notion of bandwidth "caps" is done away with.

Perhaps, perhaps not. I'm not an expert on this. And while you might be, I don't know whether you are or not for sure. What I do know is that there are companies that exist almost entirely on digital sales, and while the one I'm thinking of is a PC gaming company, I expect, though again I'm not an expert (as I said, only 'I think' the future of gaming is digital) that there will be console companies going the same way. They'll still make hard copies, but they won't be entirely hard-copies.

[Gravekeeper]

Really, consoles are the only hard copy format of gaming left if you think about it, and they still have some games that are digital only. ( WiiWare, XBLA, etc ). Plus with emulation there isn't much use in having the hardware for what we would currently think of as classic games right now. Nevermind in the future.

PC gaming on the other hand has made the hard copy completely irrelevant when it comes to classics as well. Steam and Good ol' Games have tons of classic games that were revived for digital sale. With the increasing push towards cross platform development ( Console and PC releases of the same title ) they'll be little need to have the console at all in the future.

If you even bought the console version of the game to begin with.

[jackfaire]

As I said, if someone is a collector of vintage electronics, I doubt they would care how well it worked. If they really needed to, they could replace some parts. I doubt they'll be actively used, but they likely will still be bought and sold.

Actually I am all about vintage video game machines but only to use them not for the "they are old"

Like my VCR they simply serve to let me use an older format.

[Hyena Dandy]

Actually I am all about vintage video game machines but only to use them not for the "they are old"

Like my VCR they simply serve to let me use an older format.

I appear to be confused. What is your point?

[jackfaire]

I appear to be confused. What is your point?

You said you doubted people that collect vintage systems, like me, would care how well they work. I was pointing out that the reason I collect them is to play them so how well they work is the most important factor.

[Hyena Dandy]

You said you doubted people that collect vintage systems, like me, would care how well they work. I was pointing out that the reason I collect them is to play them so how well they work is the most important factor.
I apologize for the confusion. I was saying there's a difference between collecting to play, and collecting because you want to own them, not necessarily use them. As time goes by, there will be fewer games you can only play on a console, but some people will still collect them the way I collect pipes, just to admire, not to use.