So...Brexit.

[KabeRinnaul]

Since apparently democracy means never having to admit you made a mistake even if it means driving the car off a cliff.

You really do understand right-wing American politics!

[Rapscallion]

Information fed to voters on both sides has been misleading, even moreso than usual for what is a complex issue.

I think some people were basing their vote on who lied the least.

This should be the cue to look into political reform as our politicians have become far to detached from a large proportion of the electorate, espeically in certain areas of the country which do feel rather disallusioned with politics.

Both main parties in the UK, certainly, need to look at themselves, but also the politicos in Yurp. When they alienated that many people, they have to start some self-reflection.

To be blunt: I don't think desicions that can have such a profound and long term effect on not just a country but the world at large should be made by conducting a public opinion poll.

A mate of mine who voted Remain and has been arguing long and hard since with those who are jubilant has voiced an opinion that maybe the Starship Troopers model of service grants you voting rights would be better. I think more likely a political competency test, whereby you have to prove that you are capable of understanding issues. However, democracy is what it is, and it's the least-worst option we've tried as a species, or something like that.

Nor do I think when such a terrible desicion is made that the leaders of said country are bound to abide by it consequences and public opinion be damned.

Is it actually terrible? I'm sort of on the fence. I don't think we'll do too badly out of the EU, and I'm on record elsewhere as saying we'd do OK in either case. I think it will be harder for us, but the thing that I do like is that it's going to be a catalyst for reform.

As the public opinion has certainly shifted after the intial fallout hit and the moppets responsible for this half wit ochestra started walking back their campaign promises.

As such, I think they should be tried for some sort of fraud, though I would hold both sides of this debacle to account there.

And I especially don't think you can make such a desicion with only a 2% margin to go by.

I'd agree. However, nobody thought about that ahead of time. I'd have said 66% or 75% required for what is pretty much a constitutional change. Sadly, those setting this up were taken as much by surprise as mostly everyone else.

But when I argue such things I am told, exclusively by right wing Americans I might add, to shut the fuck up because "democracy" has spoken. Since apparently democracy means never having to admit you made a mistake even if it means driving the car off a cliff.

Nice of them to tell everyone else how to conduct their business, not at all like how the UK conducted itself for hundreds of years *cough*

There's a chance that Nicola Queen of Scots can block this decision in the Scottish Parliament, though I don't know the legality of this. It would go against the democratic principles she's supposed to uphold.

Going to be very interesting for a few weeks.

Rapscallion

[Gravekeeper]

Is it actually terrible? I'm sort of on the fence. I don't think we'll do too badly out of the EU, and I'm on record elsewhere as saying we'd do OK in either case. I think it will be harder for us, but the thing that I do like is that it's going to be a catalyst for reform.

I've yet to see any real legitimate positive. When you strip away all of the nationalism/xenophobia that was used to scare up support for it you're basically left with the argument "We can do it better by ourselves, honest! No, really!" with precious little evidence to back it up.

You're most definately not going to get as sweet a trade deal with the EU as you already had. You were already part of the EU on your own terms with your own special treatment. So you're walking out of the largest free trade market on the planet that you already had a special deal with. And in order to keep trading with the EU you will have to keep abiding by its rules and regulations anyway so thats kind of a moot point as well.

Your manufacturing sectors cannot compete directly with global competition without the protections of the EU market. You're most certainly not going to be able to negotioate free trade deals with all of the EU's trade partners.

Especially not after you essentially thumbed the world at large off by sending a shockwave through its markets. Just as literally everyone with any expertise in the subject said you would. No one's going to be in any sort of hurry to draft up some sweet trade deals for you.

You have no plans to figure out how to replace all of the EU subsidies and grants you recieve. Most of which, ironically, go to the places that voted to Leave.

No good at all can come to you from the UK coming apart if/when Scotland and Northern Ireland bail.

Your GDP is projected to shrink for at least the next 15 years so this isn't going to start turning around any time in the foreseeable future.

And its left your government in a shambles and headed by a muppet. While the loudest voices responsible for it all slink out the door like they just realized they farted in an elevator.

>.>

The EU's not perfect but "Is the EU perfect?" wasn't the referendum question.

[Gravekeeper]

Farage also dismissed the notion that the referendum was causing the past few days of global financial-market turmoil as “rubbish,” attributing it instead to underperforming companies and overinflated projections.

.....seriously?

That's what he's going with? >.>

[Rapscallion]

I've yet to see any real legitimate positive. When you strip away all of the nationalism/xenophobia that was used to scare up support for it you're basically left with the argument "We can do it better by ourselves, honest! No, really!" with precious little evidence to back it up.

Both sides were full of shite. The Leave campaign more so and with more barefaced lies. As for positives, I think it's likely to end up as a break-even. People within the EU who want to trade with us are likely to continue wanting to do so.

You're most definately not going to get as sweet a trade deal with the EU as you already had. You were already part of the EU on your own terms with your own special treatment. So you're walking out of the largest free trade market on the planet that you already had a special deal with. And in order to keep trading with the EU you will have to keep abiding by its rules and regulations anyway so thats kind of a moot point as well.

I'm not certain about this. As per most of the arguments going back and forth, no bugger knows what's going to happen. When it was announced, I realised fairly quickly there's a good chance we'd end up with EEA status akin to Norway, in which case the Leave campaigners would have massively lost - we end up not having to fork out, but having to follow rules and have no say in what those rules are.

Your manufacturing sectors cannot compete directly with global competition without the protections of the EU market. You're most certainly not going to be able to negotioate free trade deals with all of the EU's trade partners.

What manufacturing sectors? Last I heard, and I may be wrong here, our manufacturing economy was tilted towards a service economy in the Thatcher years. For example, our steel industry is buggered, when elements of the UK used to be a byword for the product.

Especially not after you essentially thumbed the world at large off by sending a shockwave through its markets. Just as literally everyone with any expertise in the subject said you would. No one's going to be in any sort of hurry to draft up some sweet trade deals for you.

They (countries all around the world) want trade, and to further their desire for growth they need us as much as we need them. I'll agree with you that there will be some ire about the markets, but there are two aspects of that for me of interest. First, I really think within three months the markets will be back to their usual selves, and second confidence being that shaky is a really shitty way to run a market. No matter what the UK decision was, we weren't going to leave until two years was up. That panic and market fluctuations will only have helped the big money-folk like Soros etc.

You have no plans to figure out how to replace all of the EU subsidies and grants you recieve. Most of which, ironically, go to the places that voted to Leave.

Heh, the leave campaigners really dropped the ball, but bear in mind that every week the UK pays about £190m net to the EU, and that money could feasibly go towards the subsidies out industries were getting (if it doesn't, food prices will rise...). I actually expect most of it to go towards tax cuts for a future election, or to the pockets of big business who have friends in parliament, but that's business as normal these days in politics, disgusting though it may be.

No good at all can come to you from the UK coming apart if/when Scotland and Northern Ireland bail.

I can't see Ireland actually reunifying. They're too deeply entrenched in hating each other, and not really North vs South. As for Scotland, they were always going to go with that recently rediscovered nationalistic streak. I don't believe they're going to be as well off out of the union as some would think. I'm also not convinced that losing Scotland would be that bad. Unless they want to set up border controls along Hadrian's Wall (given my background as a classics nerd I'd help), then there will be free movement etc. If they want to sell their inexhaustible supplies of whiskey, fudge, and lambswool tartan they're going to need an open trading system.

Your GDP is projected to shrink for at least the next 15 years so this isn't going to start turning around any time in the foreseeable future.

Interesting. That's one I'd not heard. Given it's you talking I assume it's a good source?

And its left your government in a shambles and headed by a muppet. While the loudest voices responsible for it all slink out the door like they just realized they farted in an elevator.

Frankly, neither of the main parties are electable right now, and the centrist party is invisible with all six of its MPs. However, the Tories tend to act like Tiamat's armies in the Dragonlance books. When a leader is decided, they buckle down with the odd gripe. When there's weakness shown, they turn on each other until one emerges victorious with blood dripping from many wounds. The party of law and order is decidedly chaotic evil at times.

As for labour, Corbyn is the lesser-known version of Bernie Sanders. Labour back in the seventies was a hotbed of the loonie left and radical elements being the tail that wagged the dog. Kinnock started to rebrand and professionalise them as a political force as 'New Labour', and Blair finished the conversion to Tory Lite (I hate that spelling) over the next few years - basically, almost the Tories, not quite, and with roughly the same number of public schoolboys per seat. Anyway, the election to replace Ed Milliband after he crashed at the last election was down to Labour party members, not just the MPs of that party, and a huge number of ordinary people within their ranks showed their disdain for three public schoolboy types who were up against him and their stance of 'any of us three as long as it's not him'. They were sent packing.

However, the professional New Labour types were in a state of disarray, but waiting for their time. Corbyn tried an Obama by appeasing the Blairites and giving them front-bench shadow ministerial jobs to try and keep them on-side, but since he campaigned for us to remain as soon as that didn't happen they went into action to try and regain power. It's a shame, because whilst I don't agree with all his politics, he's neither staged-managed, nor a public schoolboy. He's someone who is genuine and listens to the people as much as possible. He's being sabotaged by his own party, those who are Tiamat-Lite as per the Tories, and the general membership are not going to be happy with this.

Yes, they're in disarray, but not particularly both because of the vote - that's just a catalyst.

The EU's not perfect but "Is the EU perfect?" wasn't the referendum question.

It was a deciding factor for a reasonable percentage, I think.

All done and said, I'm mostly holding a wet finger to the wind and hoping I'm reading it right. Things might change dramatically or just trundle along. The Leave campaigners are starting to admit they had no plans other than, "Get the hell out", and it's grimly amusing to see them scurry and watch many of the Leave voters go, "Hang on a minute,,,"

I only hope they learn something from all of this.

Rapscallion

[Lace Neil Singer]

You're Shakespeare reincarnated, aren't you?

With the crashing out of England from some sort of sports tournament, jokes are going around about how we crashed out of Yurp twice in a week...

Rapscallion

I like this one: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/...iceland-match/

It's just as reasonable; since it wasn't our fault that Joe Hart had butterfingers, we should have a rematch. Again and again, til England win.

[Gravekeeper]

Both sides were full of shite. The Leave campaign more so and with more barefaced lies. As for positives, I think it's likely to end up as a break-even. People within the EU who want to trade with us are likely to continue wanting to do so.

Well, the problem is twofold. Even if you actually do break even how long will it take to reach that point? Your credit rating has been downgraded across the board by Moody's, Fitch and S&P.

Second of all yes, even if some want to keep trading with you they are not going to give you as good a deal as you originally had ( thus is the nature of business ). The EU's not exactly happy with the UK at the moment either.

There's a lot of noise that the UK's exit would create a domino effect in the EU. But you're also risking that the EU will effectively make an example out of you to nip any possibly domino effect in the bud.

Germany and France have already said you're not getting market access without the obligations of membership and thats that. So you will still have to accept their terms, including immigration, if you want to play ball. You'll probably end up with access proportional to how much you're will to abide by the same membership terms as everyone else that is part of the EU.

So you've set yourself up to keep having to pay for market access, follow its rules and regulations but no longer have any say over changing them.

What manufacturing sectors? Last I heard, and I may be wrong here, our manufacturing economy was tilted towards a service economy in the Thatcher years. For example, our steel industry is buggered, when elements of the UK used to be a byword for the product.

You do have significant manufacturing/engineering mostly in machinery, aerospace, ship and car manufacturing. They're your biggest exports. And you've basically just screwed them. Under the EU anything they sold could be sold anywhere in Europe by passing one set of standards ( safety, emissions, etc ). If you leave the EU you've doubled the regulatory burden on them. They need to go through all of the certifications, standards and regulations of the UK. Then they need to do it again for the EU. Just to sell into the EU market from the UK.

Aside from them your other two biggies are pharmaceuticals and oil. Pharmaceuticals will face a similar dilemma and Scotland's got ( and will leave with ) your oil.

Yes, the majority of your economy is tied up in services. But its specifically in financial services. So leaving the EU will kick it square in the balls. The European Banking Authority will obviously be moved out of London and with it the big financial firms. As you no longer have any input on EU financial regulations which was a big draw for them. Some of them are already scouring for new office locations in other EU countries ( JP Morgan ). There's also a real risk that the EU will no longer let you directly process transactions in euros. Which will further hamper your financial services sector.

London is a major financial hub that employs some odd 2 million people in financial services and you're kicking its legs out from under it.

First, I really think within three months the markets will be back to their usual selves, and second confidence being that shaky is a really shitty way to run a market. No matter what the UK decision was, we weren't going to leave until two years was up. That panic and market fluctuations will only have helped the big money-folk like Soros etc.

I doubt you will recover your credit ratings and what not in three months. You hadn't even recovered your credit rating from the 2008 crisis yet as I recall. You basically told all foreign investment that the pool's closed, everybody out. They're not going to make any big moves back into your economy until after they see how this all plays out and whether or not its worth it. Which means 2+ years.

Heh, the leave campaigners really dropped the ball, but bear in mind that every week the UK pays about £190m net to the EU, and that money could feasibly go towards the subsidies out industries were getting (if it doesn't, food prices will rise...).

Expect them to rise. You were getting a lot of farming subsidies from the EU and its pretty clear the Leave side was just saying whatever the fark to convince people. They have no actual plan to replace the EU's system of grants and subsidies.

I don't believe they're going to be as well off out of the union as some would think. I'm also not convinced that losing Scotland would be that bad. Unless they want to set up border controls along Hadrian's Wall (given my background as a classics nerd I'd help), then there will be free movement etc. If they want to sell their inexhaustible supplies of whiskey, fudge, and lambswool tartan they're going to need an open trading system.

I don't think its a matter of them being well off so much as you dragging them out of the EU where they wanted to be. If they stay in the EU and you leave the EU is a far more appealling market than you are to trade with. Plus, they're right next door to you and thus make for an easy move for companies, financial firms and foreign investment that would like to retain access to the EU but not have to relocate their offices too far.

Plus, like I said, they still got your oil.

Interesting. That's one I'd not heard. Given it's you talking I assume it's a good source?

That was the analysis from your Treasury.

Frankly, neither of the main parties are electable right now, and the centrist party is invisible with all six of its MPs. However, the Tories tend to act like Tiamat's armies in the Dragonlance books. When a leader is decided, they buckle down with the odd gripe. When there's weakness shown, they turn on each other until one emerges victorious with blood dripping from many wounds. The party of law and order is decidedly chaotic evil at times.

I noticed the Tiamat thing. Honestly it makes the entire situation all the worse. Such a massive and unprecedent desicion with global reprecussions? You desperately need good leadership to make it through this without completely sinking yourselves. But what you have is a middle aged produce manager with Owen Wilson's haircut and an overinflated frog that needs to open its mouth to vent air every few minutes least it burst.

I mean, Nigel just went to the EU Pariliment and straight up told them to go fuck themselves in the most immature and delusional way possible. If you want any hope of negotiating any sort of favourable terms with the EU you need to shove him a trunk and leave him in a parking lot somewhere.

As for labour, Corbyn is the lesser-known version of Bernie Sanders.

And he seems to be doing so well. <cough> >.>

It was a deciding factor for a reasonable percentage, I think.

Which is a big problem. A lot of people seemingly used the referendum as a protest vote and now are shocked that the Leave side won.

The Leave campaigners are starting to admit they had no plans other than, "Get the hell out", and it's grimly amusing to see them scurry and watch many of the Leave voters go, "Hang on a minute,,,"

Now now, that's not entirely true. They still apparently have plans to burn literally every bridge they can on the way out. >.>

[Rapscallion]

[QUOTE=Gravekeeper;165466]Aside from them your other two biggies are pharmaceuticals and oil. Pharmaceuticals will face a similar dilemma and Scotland's got ( and will leave with ) your oil.[quote]

Au contraire, mon frère!

Sorry - rushed response here and will be fuller in due course, but I was surprised to find out last weekend that the internationally agreed borders dictate that most of the oil isn't in Scotland's waters.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archi...me-boundaries/

Approximately 17 years ago, an agreement was reached (and I have no fucking clue how this was accepted by anyone on the Scottish side, and no idea why it was suggested on the English side) to shift the boundary from directly east from Berwick on Tweed to directly north-east. The oil fields still in the Scottish areas are heavily depleted. The ones with large reserves are in the English section.

I was pretty gobsmacked to find this out, and since it was Blair (a very pro-Yurp chap) involved, I don't think his intent was to split from the EU or Scotland.

I noticed the Tiamat thing.

Scary, huh? Now we just need to make sure we have a band of plucky adventurers containing one mixed race, some minorities, a doomed love affair, at least one female with red hair, and lots of swords and violence. Oh, and dragonlances.

I mean, Nigel just went to the EU Pariliment and straight up told them to go fuck themselves in the most immature and delusional way possible.

To be fair, he was doing that before. He's always been a wanker.

If you want any hope of negotiating any sort of favourable terms with the EU you need to shove him a trunk and leave him in a parking lot somewhere.

Or we can rely on the fact that the actual leaders of the EU are adults who realise that they have to get past ire if they want to do the best for the people who voted them in, which is a main reason Trump is so very, very much the wrong person. Well, one of the many main reasons.

Which is a big problem. A lot of people seemingly used the referendum as a protest vote and now are shocked that the Leave side won.

The Sun and the Mail were two newspapers with prominent Leave support. Both of them have sections of their website since the vote saying what the likely outcomes of the result is. The comments section is a gold mine of, "If you'd said this before the vote, I'd have voted to remain, you bastards," and I am taking what schadenfreude I can from seeing their tears from getting what they wanted.

More later.

Rapscallion

[Gravekeeper]

Ugh: http://globalnews.ca/news/2791192/england-sees-a-disturbing-wave-of-hate-crime-in-the-wake-of-brexit-vote/

=/

I was pretty gobsmacked to find this out, and since it was Blair (a very pro-Yurp chap) involved, I don't think his intent was to split from the EU or Scotland.

Interesting. That could turn into an ugly fight over who gets what if Scotland bails.

Now we just need to make sure we have a band of plucky adventurers containing one mixed race, some minorities, a doomed love affair, at least one female with red hair, and lots of swords and violence. Oh, and dragonlances.

You could probably cast one from the peanut gallery of parliment.

To be fair, he was doing that before. He's always been a wanker.

True, but doing it now is actually damaging the very cause he's championing. Before it was just idle wankery that could be dismissed by the grown ups in the room.

Or we can rely on the fact that the actual leaders of the EU are adults who realise that they have to get past ire if they want to do the best for the people who voted them in, which is a main reason Trump is so very, very much the wrong person. Well, one of the many main reasons.

One of those recent many reasons being confusing Scotland and Britain. Because if there's one things the Scottish love its being mistaken for the English.

The Sun and the Mail were two newspapers with prominent Leave support. Both of them have sections of their website since the vote saying what the likely outcomes of the result is. The comments section is a gold mine of, "If you'd said this before the vote, I'd have voted to remain, you bastards," and I am taking what schadenfreude I can from seeing their tears from getting what they wanted.

Obligatory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBT6OSr1TI

[s_stabeler]

Interesting. That could turn into an ugly fight over who gets what if Scotland bails.

Not a lot Scotland could do about it.

[Rapscallion]

Ugh: http://globalnews.ca/news/2791192/england-sees-a-disturbing-wave-of-hate-crime-in-the-wake-of-brexit-vote/

=/

For what it's worth, with a bit of luck it will show up fucktrumpets like that and we can start working on genuine targets.

Interesting. That could turn into an ugly fight over who gets what if Scotland bails.

The first casualty of divorce is the heirlooms...

True, but doing it now is actually damaging the very cause he's championing. Before it was just idle wankery that could be dismissed by the grown ups in the room.

It still is. He's not happy that he's not being included in any of the teams set up to look into things. He's not an elected member of the UK parliament, and thus not entitled, and it's pissed him off.

One of those recent many reasons being confusing Scotland and Britain. Because if there's one things the Scottish love its being mistaken for the English.

I think it's because when we wear skirts we wear underwear with it.

Second of all yes, even if some want to keep trading with you they are not going to give you as good a deal as you originally had ( thus is the nature of business ). The EU's not exactly happy with the UK at the moment either.

There's a lot of noise that the UK's exit would create a domino effect in the EU. But you're also risking that the EU will effectively make an example out of you to nip any possibly domino effect in the bud.

Firstly, it depends who in Yurp. The politicians are pretty irked, though I still expect some sort of charm offensive. A friend just got back from a holiday in Greece and there were tourists from all over Yurp there at the time, plus a whole load of Greeks. Everyone was saying we'd made the right choice. Politicians think it's a bad move, but the public sort of envied us. Granted, small sample size, but interesting and chum was of the opinion that there's a massive disconnect between politicians and public.

As for being made an example of, there were loud noises to start with, but they've eased off. They can be angry if they want, but when the sub-prime mortgage market in the US crashed the world economy eight to ten years back, how many countries still hold grudges against them for that?

I mean, Nigel just went to the EU Pariliment and straight up told them to go fuck themselves in the most immature and delusional way possible. If you want any hope of negotiating any sort of favourable terms with the EU you need to shove him a trunk and leave him in a parking lot somewhere.

If anything happens, I'll need an alibi. You'd vouch for me, right?

Now now, that's not entirely true. They still apparently have plans to burn literally every bridge they can on the way out. >.>

Also, the Chunnel.

Rapscallion

[Racket_Man]

I have been sort of following this Brexit thing for a while now (as my local Public Radio station broadcasts the BBC World Service during the overnight hours) and just find all of this VERY amusing.

This is all I have to say:

Be careful what you wish for, you JUST might get it whether you like it or not and be willing to accept the consequences of your wish.

[Gravekeeper]

Boris has bowed out. Really, Cameron stepping down was a smart move on his part. Someone on the Leave side needs to be at the reins of this so if and when it fails they can't claim it was because someone else didn't do it right.

The food situation might be worse than I thought though.

A friend just got back from a holiday in Greece and there were tourists from all over Yurp there at the time, plus a whole load of Greeks.

Really? Man, Greece is one to talk. Without the EU they'd be wandering a post apocolyptic wasteland slitting each others throats for gas and olive oil at this point.

If anything happens, I'll need an alibi. You'd vouch for me, right?

Totally~. No really, officer, he sent me a PM around that time so it couldn't be him. I swears it. >.>

[Rapscallion]

Boris has bowed out. Really, Cameron stepping down was a smart move on his part. Someone on the Leave side needs to be at the reins of this so if and when it fails they can't claim it was because someone else didn't do it right.

Yup, that did make me smile. He's now got a choice of standing back in the wings whilst someone else has to do his dirty work and try to make political capital out of it later. However, most observers think he's basically Trump Minor and hopefully enough will remember to keep him from doing it all over again.

The food situation might be worse than I thought though.

Meh, everything's cheap when it's boiled...

Really? Man, Greece is one to talk. Without the EU they'd be wandering a post apocolyptic wasteland slitting each others throats for gas and olive oil at this point.

Possibly, but they're in a very, very shitty situation and the German banks have them by the short and curlies. They're really, really pissed off about this and are probably thinking that the UK just managed to evade this. However, there were nationals of other countries there who also approved.

Totally~. No really, officer, he sent me a PM around that time so it couldn't be him. I swears it. >.>

You're a champ

Rapscallion

[Gravekeeper]

So, Farage is stepping down now too and Boris is somehow trying to blame the fallout of the Brexit vote on the Remain campaign. Seems like everyone involved in this "victory" has no interest in taking responsibility for the consequences. While everyone else, understandably, doesn't want to be anywhere near the reins when the buggy plunges off the cliff.